Bitcoin is officially back above $90,000, and the crypto market is on fire with speculation. Some traders are calling for $126,000 BTC, while others swear this entire move is just a dead-cat bounce waiting to nuke portfolios.
At the same time, Texas just quietly made a historic move—one that could reshape Bitcoin adoption forever.
In this full Bitcoin Analysis breakdown, we’ll cover:
- The Texas Bitcoin Reserve and why it matters
- Key Bitcoin support and resistance
- Whale activity and institutional accumulation
- On-chain danger signs
- Macro risks (Fed rate cuts, ETF flows, Tether issues)
- The 7–10 day Bitcoin analysis
- My personal trading plan (not financial advice)
Let’s get into the real data behind this move.
Table of Contents
Texas Just Bought Bitcoin — And It’s a Bigger Deal Than People Think
One of the most underrated headlines this week:
Texas officially purchased Bitcoin.
Not a crypto fund.
Not a wealthy Texan.
The State of Texas itself.
Texas launched a state-backed crypto reserve, putting $5 million into a Bitcoin ETF.
Why does this matter?
Because this is how it starts.
- Today: $5 million
- Tomorrow: $150 million
- In 10 years: Texas front-running the U.S. on Bitcoin adoption
And Texas isn’t alone. Institutions are quietly accumulating BTC after the recent crash while retail panic-sells the bottom.
This is government-level FOMO—a hedge against a weakening dollar.
Bitcoin Analysis: A Violent Crash Followed by a Sharp Rebound
Bitcoin fell from $120,000 to a panic low near $79,000, then bounced back above $90,000.
That’s a 12% rebound in just a few days.
Currently, Bitcoin is hovering near $91,600, sitting neatly above a huge support range:
Major Bitcoin Support Zone:
$85,000 – $88,000
This is where smart money stepped in aggressively.
Using Bollinger Bands:
- Price slammed into the lower band
- Bounced perfectly
- Is now curling upward
If BTC reclaims the middle Bollinger Band (~$95K), that’s a strong bullish short-term reversal signal.
But there’s one big warning…
All major EMAs (20, 50, 99) are still above price.
This means:
- Macro trend = neutral to bearish
- Downtrend is weakening
- But not confirmed dead yet
Institutional Activity: Accumulation vs. Possible Dumping
K33 Research just labeled Bitcoin a strong buy after the 36% crash.
A treasury firm backed this sentiment by buying 100 BTC—over $9 million at these levels.
But not all whales agree…
On-Chain Data Shows Massive Exchange Deposits
Two big whale transfers hit exchanges:
- 1,092 BTC
- 1,469 BTC
When whales send BTC to exchanges, it usually means one thing:
➡️ They’re preparing to sell.
So the market is in a tug-of-war:
- Smart money accumulating
- Other whales positioning to dump
Momentum Indicators: Bullish Signs, But With a Trap Set
MACD
- Histogram: deep red → light red
- Lines curling upward
- Near bullish crossover
This signals short-term upward momentum.
RSI
- RSI 6 bouncing from oversold
- Higher RSIs climbing but not overbought
- BUT a disturbing micro-crossover indicates potential weakness ahead
This is a “mini top” signal BTC has made many times before.
Bollinger Band Warning
Shorter time frames show:
- Price hugging upper band
- RSI overbought
This is the exact setup where Bitcoin loves to fake breakout → dump 5–10% in a single day.
Combine that with whale exchange inflows and you get:
➡️ A perfect recipe for a short-term pullback.
Macro Risk: The Fed Could Kill This Rally Instantly
This current rally is heavily fueled by hope that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December.
Rate cuts = cheaper money → risk-on rally → bullish for Bitcoin.
But if the Fed disappoints?
Bitcoin can unwind fast and revisit the low $80K range.
Other macro concerns:
Weak ETF Inflows
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are showing net outflows.
A rally without ETF demand is like building a skyscraper on wet sand.
Tether Stability Downgrade
Tether (USDT) recently received a stability downgrade, spooking institutions.
If the largest stablecoin becomes uncertain:
- Liquidity dries up
- Volatility explodes
- Small sell-offs turn into violent crashes
Bitcoin Analysis (Next 7–10 Days)
Based on charts, volatility and momentum, here’s the realistic short-term path:
Bullish Scenario (Most Likely Right Now)
Target range:
- $95,500 – $98,000
- $100,000 psychological level
These levels align with:
- Middle Bollinger Band
- EMA 20
- Heavy historical resistance
If Bitcoin breaks and holds above $100K:
➡️ Next stop: $110K – $120K
Bearish Scenario
If BTC fails to hold above $92K–$95K:
- Retest of $88K
- Worst-case: dip to $85K
- Extreme-case: $78K – $82K (macro support)
Bitcoin Analysis (Next 2–6 Weeks)
If Bitcoin breaks above the key EMAs (20, 50, 99):
- $105,500 is the next logical target
- Then $112,000
- And possibly a retest of $120,000
But this requires:
- Positive Fed expectations
- Strong ETF inflows
- No Tether meltdown
If BTC gets rejected from the 50 EMA instead?
➡️ Expect a slow bleed back to the low $80Ks.
Final Bitcoin Price Prediction
Based on the full setup:
➡️ Bitcoin likely moves into the $95K–$100K range next.
This is where the real decision happens.
If BTC smashes through $100K with volume:
- $110K next
- Then $120K
If BTC fails to reclaim $92K–$95K:
- Expect a sharp pullback toward $88K–$85K
My Personal Trading Plan (Not Financial Advice)
Here’s exactly how I’m playing this:
- Entry: $91K–$92K
- Take Profit #1: $95,500–$96,000
- Take Profit #2: $99,000–$100,000
- Stop Loss: Just under $88,000
If BTC breaks $100K with volume → trail stop toward $105K.
If BTC fails before $95K → exit early.
No ego. No diamond hands LARPing.
So… Is Bitcoin Going to $126,000?
Right now, the market is split:
Bullish Factors
- Texas launching a Bitcoin reserve
- Institutions quietly accumulating
- Strong rebound from support
Bearish Factors
- Whales depositing over 2,500 BTC to exchanges
- RSI overbought signals
- Weak ETF flows
- Fed uncertainty
- Tether downgrade
We are one bad macro event away from chaos.
But also one strong breakout away from $110K+.
